Football Our Calculator Explained
The Castrol EDGE UEFA EURO 2012™ Calculator makes result and score-line predictions on every UEFA EURO 2012™ fixture by first evaluating each team's attack and defence. This, together with knowing the structure of the tournament, then allows us to predict how well each team will do.
Step 1:
We use goals scored and conceded to generate the attack and defence ratings for each team. More recent goals are given greater relevance than those scored longer ago.
Step 2:
We then take the attack and defence ratings and convert them to average number of goals scored for Team A vs Team B.
Home team:
Team A: Attack = 0.8 Defence = 1.1
Home advantage = 1.4
Away team:
Team B: Attack = 1.7 Defence = 0.7
Average number of Team A goals:
0.8 x 0.7 x 1.4 = 0.784
Average number of Team B goals:
1.7 x 1.1 = 1.870
Step 3:
The next step is to feed the average number of goals into a probability distribution model to calculate the likelihood of a team scoring a specific number of goals.
Probability Team A score:
0 goals = 46%
1 goals = 36%
2 goals = 14% etc.
Probability Team B score:
0 goals = 15%
1 goals = 29%
2 goals = 27% etc.
Step 4:
Through these percentages we can now calculate the probability of any score. From these predictions we can determine where a team is likely to finish in their group, and how far they’ll progress through the tournament. Will your team be pushing for the UEFA EURO 2012™ crown, or will the struggle to get past the group stage?
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